Probability weighting for losses and for gains among smallholder farmers in Uganda

Verschoor, Arjan and D'Exelle, Ben (2022) Probability weighting for losses and for gains among smallholder farmers in Uganda. Theory and Decision, 92. pp. 223-258. ISSN 0040-5833

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Abstract

Probability weighting is a marked feature of decision-making under risk. For poor people in rural areas of developing countries, how probabilities are evaluated matters for livelihoods decisions, especially the probabilities associated with losses. Previous studies of risky choice among poor people in developing countries seldom consider losses and do not offer a refined tracking of the probability-weighting function (PWF). We investigate probability weighting among smallholder farmers in Uganda, separately for losses and for gains, using a method (common consequence ladders) that allows refined tracking of the PWF for a population with low levels of literacy. For losses, we find marked probability weighting near zero, which is in line with evidence found in Western labs. For gains, the absence of probability weighting is remarkable, particularly its absence near 100%. We also find marked differences in probability weighting for traditional farmers which are in line with the observed livelihoods strategies in the study area.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	cumulative prospect theory,gains,losses,probability weighting,uganda,decision sciences(all),developmental and educational psychology,arts and humanities (miscellaneous),applied psychology,social sciences(all),economics, econometrics and finance(all),computer science applications ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1800
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Global Development (formerly School of International Development) Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Impact Evaluation Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Gender and Development Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Behavioural Economics Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Environment, Resources and Conflict University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Behavioural and Experimental Development Economics
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	05 Dec 2020 00:47
Last Modified:	18 Jul 2025 06:32
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/77901
DOI:	10.1007/s11238-020-09796-8

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