Merger Simulation and Policy Evaluation in Markets for Sinful Goods: Insights from Experimental and Empirical Demand Estimation

Siriwardana, Janithe (2024) Merger Simulation and Policy Evaluation in Markets for Sinful Goods: Insights from Experimental and Empirical Demand Estimation. Doctoral thesis, University of East Anglia.

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Abstract

The three interconnected studies presented here explore various economic aspects of ‘sin goods’ - notably alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). The first of these introduces a novel methodology for merger analysis, focusing on the beer industry, by combining data from online experiments to augment real-world data in a structural demand estimation model. Our work provides a cost-effective and timely alternative for conducting merger simulations by addressing the challenges posed by traditional data-intensive approaches while estimating market variables in line with previous studies. We then shift focus into public health policy analysis, evaluating the effectiveness of a recent high in fat, sugar and salt (HFSS) location restriction policy in England through a difference-in-difference model. By analysing aggregate sales data from the UKs largest supermarket chain, we show that although the policy did reduce sales of some sugary drinks, ineffective targeting in terms of storetypes and point-of-consumption means that overall the policy had no significant impact on the sales of SSBs in England. Finally, we combine the structural demand techniques of the first paper, with the data and policy from the second, to investigate the welfare effects of the HFSS location restrictions and simulate the effects of alternate versions of the policy on both sales and welfare. Although we find some small heterogeneous effects between demographic groups, with Families suffering a small decrease in consumer welfare from the policy and an extension, at the aggregate level we find there are almost no changes to welfare, whatever the policy environment.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
Depositing User:	Chris White
Date Deposited:	02 Jun 2025 08:59
Last Modified:	02 Jun 2025 08:59
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99371
DOI:

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