The role of local knowledge in enhancing climate change risk assessments in rural Northern Ireland

Kennedy-Asser, Alan T., Andrews, Oliver D., Montgomery, Jill, Jenkins, Katie L., Smith, Ben A. H., Lewis, Elizabeth, Birkinshaw, Stephen J., He, Helen, Pywell, Richard F., Brown, Matt J., Redhead, John W., Warren, Rachel, Robson, Craig, Smith, Adam J. P., Nicholls, Robert J., Mullan, Donal and McGuire, Ryan (2025) The role of local knowledge in enhancing climate change risk assessments in rural Northern Ireland. Climate Risk Management, 48. ISSN 2212-0963

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Abstract

Climate risk modelling provides valuable quantitative data on potential risks at different spatiotemporal scales, but it is essential that these models are evaluated appropriately. In some cases, it may be useful to merge quantitative datasets with qualitative data and local knowledge, to better inform and evaluate climate risk assessments. This interdisciplinary study maps climatic risks relating to health and agriculture that are facing rural Northern Ireland. A large range of quantitative national climate risk modelling results from the OpenCLIM project are scrutinised using local qualitative insights identified during workshops and interviews with farmers and rural care providers. In some cases, the qualitative local knowledge supported the quantitative modelling results, such as (1) highlighting that heat risk can be an issue for health in rural areas as well as urban centres, and (2) precipitation is changing, with increased variability posing challenges to agriculture. In other cases, the local knowledge challenged the national quantitative results. For example, models suggested that (1) potential heat stress impacts will be low, and (2) grass growing conditions will be more favourable, with higher yields as a result of future climatic conditions. In both cases, local knowledge challenged these conclusions, with discomfort and workplace heat stress reported by care staff and recent experience of variable weather having significant impacts on grass growth on farms across the country. Hence, merging even a small amount of qualitative local knowledge with quantitative national modelling projects results in a more holistic understanding of the local climate risk.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This work was funded by the UK Climate Resilience Programme (NE/W00707X/1 and NE/T013931/1) and from the UK Economic and Social Research Council through the Place-based Climate Action Network (PCAN) (ES/S008381/1) as part of the Rural Resilience Project.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change,local knowledge,northern ireland,risk,rural,global and planetary change,geography, planning and development,atmospheric science,management, monitoring, policy and law,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2306
Faculty \ School:	University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Geosciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	10 Apr 2025 09:30
Last Modified:	29 Apr 2025 13:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99007
DOI:	10.1016/j.crm.2025.100702

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