Climate data integration into wheat performance evaluation reveals large inter-varietal responses

Raymond, Joanna, Penfield, Steven, Lovett, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0554-9273, Mackay, Ian, Philpott, Haidee, Simpson, Conor John Christopher and Dorling, Stephen (2024) Climate data integration into wheat performance evaluation reveals large inter-varietal responses. Environmental Research: Food Systems, 2 (1). ISSN 2976-601X

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Abstract

There is an urgent need to adapt crop breeding strategies to boost resilience in the face of a growing food demand and a changing climate. Achieving this requires an understanding of how weather and climate variability impacts crop growth and development. Using the United Kingdom (UK) as an example, we evaluate changes in the UK agroclimate and analyse how these have influenced domestic wheat production. Here we quantify spatial and temporal variability and changes in weather and climate across growing seasons over the last four decades (1981–2020). Drawing on variety trial data, we then use statistical modelling to explore the interaction between genotype and agroclimate variation. We show that changes in the UK agroclimate present both risks, and opportunities for wheat growers, depending on location. From 1981–2020, in Wales, the West Midlands, large parts of the North West, and Northern Ireland, there was an overall increase in frost risk in early spring of 0.15 additional frost days per year, whilst in the east early frost risk decreased by up to 0.29 d per year. Meanwhile, over the period 1987–2020, surface incoming shortwave radiation during grainfill increased in the east by up to 13% but decreased in Western areas by up to 15%. We show significant inter-varietal differences in yield responses to growing degree days, heavy rainfall, and the occurrence of late frost. This highlights the importance of evaluating variety-climate interactions in variety trial analyses, and in climate-optimised selection of crops and varieties by growers. This work provides guidance for future research on how climate change is affecting the UK agroclimate and resulting impacts on winter cereal production.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data availability statement: The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) Recommended List is managed by a project consortium of AHDB, the British Society of Plant Breeders (BSPB), Maltsters' Association of Great Britain (MAGB) and the United Kingdom Flour Millers (UKFM). The data that support the findings of this study are available upon reasonable request from AHDB-BSPB, subject to AHDB-BSPB's Materials Transfer Agreement. Funding information: This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council and the EnvEast Doctoral Training Partnership [Grant Number NE/L002582/1], and the British Society of Plant Breeders (BSPB).
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE) Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	29 Nov 2024 01:53
Last Modified:	18 Dec 2024 01:39
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/97831
DOI:	10.1088/2976-601X/ad90e4

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