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Li, Xuqian, Li, Qingxiang, Wild, Martin and Jones, Phil 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5032-5493
(2024)
An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century.
Communications Earth & Environment, 5.
ISSN 2662-4435
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Abstract
Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance has long been a challenge, primarily due to uncertainties that dwarf the energy flux changes induced and a lack of precise observational data at the surface. We have employed the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, integrating it with recent developments in surface solar radiation observational data, to refine the ensemble of CMIP6 model outputs. This has resulted in an enhanced estimation of Surface Earth System Energy Imbalance (EEI) changes since the late 19th century. Our findings show that CMIP6 model outputs, constrained by this observational data, reflect changes in energy imbalance consistent with observations in Ocean Heat Content (OHC), offering a narrower uncertainty range at the 95% confidence level than previous estimates. Observing the EEI series, dominated by changes due to external forcing, we note a relative stability (0.22 Wm−2) over the past half-century, but with a intensification (reaching 0.80 Wm−2) in the mid to late 1990s, indicating an escalation in the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change, which provides another independent confirmation of what recent studies have shown.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | Data availability statement: The datasets used in this study include: China-MST2.0 and global land surface solar radiation data reconstructed using a convolutional neural network, both available at http://www.gwpu.net/h-col-103.html on the Climate Change: Observation and Modeling platform; global, regional, and local energy balance data from GEBA, available at https://geba.ethz.ch/; ocean heat content data integrated from multiple sources, with specific access details found in related publications; satellite observation data from the CERES EBAF dataset, available at https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/data/; CMIP6 model data, available from the official CMIP6 database. Additionally, the BMA calculation results and related EEI and OHC data from this study can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13911838. Code availability: Code can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13911838. Funding information: This study is supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42375022) and the National Key R&D Programs of China (Grants 2023YFCxxxxxxx). |
| Faculty \ School: | University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences |
| UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Nov 2024 17:30 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Nov 2024 00:52 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/97473 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z |
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