The carbon dioxide removal gap

Lamb, William F., Gasser, Thomas, Roman-Cuesta, Rosa M., Grassi, Giacomo, Gidden, Matthew J., Powis, Carter M., Geden, Oliver, Nemet, Gregory, Pratama, Yoga, Riahi, Keywan, Smith, Stephen M., Steinhauser, Jan, Vaughan, Naomi E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4532-2084, Smith, Harry B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8149-4764 and Minx, Jan C. (2024) The carbon dioxide removal gap. Nature Climate Change. ISSN 1758-678X

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Abstract

Rapid emissions reductions, including reductions in deforestation-based land emissions, are the dominant source of global climate mitigation potential in the coming decades. However, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will also have an important role to play. Despite this, it remains unclear whether current national proposals for CDR align with temperature targets. Here we show the ‘CDR gap’, that is, CDR efforts proposed by countries fall short of those in integrated assessment model scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 °C. However, the most ambitious proposals for CDR are close to levels in a low-energy demand scenario with the most-limited CDR scaling and aggressive near-term emissions reductions. Further, we observe that many countries propose to expand land-based removals, but none yet commit to substantively scaling novel methods such as bioenergy carbon capture and storage, biochar or direct air carbon capture and storage.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding Information: This work was supported by the European Union ERC-2020-SyG \u2018GENIE\u2019 (951542) grant (W.F.L., J.C.M., G.N., T.G., M.J.G., Y.P., J.S., K.R.); the UK Natural Environment Research Council \u2018CO2RE Hub\u2019 (NE/V013106/1) grant (S.M.S.); the European Union Horizon 2020 \u2018ESM2025\u2019 (101003536) and \u2018RESCUE\u2019 (101056939) grants (T.G.); the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research \u2018CDRSynTra\u2019 (01LS2101A) (J.C.M., O.G.) and \u2018ASMASYS\u2019 (01LS2101A) grants (O.G.).
Uncontrolled Keywords: environmental science (miscellaneous),social sciences (miscellaneous),sdg 15 - life on land,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2301
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
Faculty of Science
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 17 May 2024 17:30
Last Modified: 17 May 2024 17:30
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/95241
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01984-6

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