Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India

Samanta, Sourav, Hazra, Sugata, French, Jon R., Nicholls, Robert J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109 and Mondal, Partho P. (2023) Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India. Science of the Total Environment, 903. ISSN 0048-9697

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Abstract

In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Funding information: This research was funded under the “Towards a Sustainable Earth: Environment-human systems and the UN Global Goals” (TaSE) program in the project “Opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs for food, welfare and the environment in deltas”. Funding was provided by NERC Grant NE/S012478/1, Formas Grant 2019-00045, and the UKIERI-DBT (Grant BT/IN/TaSE/70/SH/2018-19) under UK-India Education Research Initiative. RN has been supported by funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 101037097 (REST-COAST project).
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	29 Aug 2023 08:30
Last Modified:	08 Sep 2023 09:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/92939
DOI:	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166624

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