Modelling the drivers of land availability for afforestation and BECCS

Ball, Thomas (2022) Modelling the drivers of land availability for afforestation and BECCS. Doctoral thesis, University of East Anglia.

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Abstract

This thesis contains an exploration of the drivers of human land use for agriculture in the context of land intense climate change mitigation strategies (afforestation and BECCS). To do this, a model of the global food system was developed (C-LLAMA). The model linearly projects country level diet, yield, and production data to 2050, taking in to account waste and losses, and finally producing an output of agricultural land use for crops and pasture. A business as usual ‘anchor’ scenario was produced, in which all parameters and inputs are projected normally, which results in a global agricultural land footprint of 5.2 Gha. In subsequent chapters, the model is used to explore the sensitivity of agricultural land use to three key drivers: dietary trends, food waste and losses, and crop yields. Prescribing a trajectory toward the EATLancet planetary health diet in all countries leads to a slight increase in global land use of 100 Mha when compared with the anchor scenario. Reducing food waste and losses, and increasing crop yields both unsurprisingly reduced global land use. The final chapter contains an examination of various potential threats to the sustainable delivery of bioenergy in four mitigation scenarios. The chapter explores the climate, governance, environmental performance, and food demand changes in regions that produce energy crops in this scenarios. It is found that large portions of energy crop production occur in the tropics, in regions of moderate or poor governance, or with significant (>30%) increases in food demand by 2050.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User:	Nicola Veasy
Date Deposited:	01 Dec 2022 11:02
Last Modified:	01 Dec 2022 11:02
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/89976
DOI:

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