Short-term load forecasting in smart grids: An intelligent modular approach

Ahmad, Ashfaq, Javaid, Nadeem, Mateen, Abdul, Awais, Muhammad and Khan, Zahoor Ali (2019) Short-term load forecasting in smart grids: An intelligent modular approach. Energies, 12 (1). ISSN 1996-1073

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Abstract

Daily operations and planning in a smart grid require a day-ahead load forecasting of its customers. The accuracy of day-ahead load-forecasting models has a significant impact on many decisions such as scheduling of fuel purchases, system security assessment, economic scheduling of generating capacity, and planning for energy transactions. However, day-ahead load forecasting is a challenging task due to its dependence on external factors such as meteorological and exogenous variables. Furthermore, the existing day-ahead load-forecasting models enhance forecast accuracy by paying the cost of increased execution time. Aiming at improving the forecast accuracy while not paying the increased executions time cost, a hybrid artificial neural network-based day-ahead load-forecasting model for smart grids is proposed in this paper. The proposed forecasting model comprises three modules: (i) a pre-processing module; (ii) a forecast module; and (iii) an optimization module. In the first module, correlated lagged load data along with influential meteorological and exogenous variables are fed as inputs to a feature selection technique which removes irrelevant and/or redundant samples from the inputs. In the second module, a sigmoid function (activation) and a multivariate auto regressive algorithm (training) in the artificial neural network are used. The third module uses a heuristics-based optimization technique to minimize the forecast error. In the third module, our modified version of an enhanced differential evolution algorithm is used. The proposed method is validated via simulations where it is tested on the datasets of DAYTOWN (Ohio, USA) and EKPC (Kentucky, USA). In comparison to two existing day-ahead load-forecasting models, results show improved performance of the proposed model in terms of accuracy, execution time, and scalability.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 7 - affordable and clean energy ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/affordable_and_clean_energy
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Computing Sciences
Related URLs:	http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12010164
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	21 Dec 2021 08:30
Last Modified:	21 Apr 2023 01:18
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/82751
DOI:	10.3390/en12010164

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