Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines

Reade, J. James, Singleton, Carl and Brown, Alasdair (2021) Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 68 (2). pp. 261-285. ISSN 0036-9292

Preview

PDF (strange_forecasts_rsb) - Accepted Version Download (375kB) | Preview

Abstract

This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.

Item Type:	Article
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Applied Econometrics And Finance
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	08 Dec 2020 00:46
Last Modified:	25 Oct 2022 01:38
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/77904
DOI:	10.1111/sjpe.12264

Downloads

Actions (login required)

View Item