Global Carbon Budget 2017

Le Quéré, Corinne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-0452, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Pongratz, Julia, Manning, Andrew C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6952-7773, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Jackson, Robert B., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Andrews, Oliver D., Arora, Vivek K., Bakker, Dorothee C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9234-5337, Barbero, Leticia, Becker, Meike, Betts, Richard A., Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica, Currie, Kim, Gasser, Thomas, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Hunt, Christopher W., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Kautz, Markus, Keeling, Ralph F., Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lima, Ivan, Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Padin, X. Antonio, Peregon, Anna, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Reimer, Janet, Rödenbeck, Christian, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco N., van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., van Heuven, Steven, Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Watson, Andrew J., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zaehle, Sönke and Zhu, Dan (2018) Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data, 10 (1). pp. 405-448. ISSN 1866-3516

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Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Related URLs:	https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/4...
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	23 Mar 2018 12:30
Last Modified:	14 Jun 2023 13:19
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/66578
DOI:	10.5194/essd-10-405-2018

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