Growth on a finite planet: Resources, technology and population in the long run

Peretto, Pietro F. and Valente, Simone (2015) Growth on a finite planet: Resources, technology and population in the long run. Journal of Economic Growth, 20 (3). pp. 305-331. ISSN 1381-4338

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Abstract

We study the interactions between technological change, resource scarcity and population dynamics in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous fertility. We find a steady state in which population is constant and determined by resource scarcity while income grows exponentially. If labor and resources are substitutes in production, income and fertility dynamics are stable and the steady state is the global attractor of the system. If labor and resources are complements, income and fertility dynamics are unstable and drive the economy towards either demographic explosion or collapse. We calibrate the model numerically to match past US data on fertility and land scarcity, obtaining future scenarios for the current century and quantifying the response of fertility and productivity to exogenous shocks.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	endogenous innovation,resource scarcity,population growth,fertility choices
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Environment, Resources and Conflict Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Economic Theory
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	23 Jul 2015 10:20
Last Modified:	05 Mar 2024 22:31
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/53478
DOI:	10.1007/s10887-015-9118-z

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