Variation in the climatic response to SRES emissions scenarios in integrated assessment models

Warren, R ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599, Mastrandrea, M, Hope, C and Hof, A (2010) Variation in the climatic response to SRES emissions scenarios in integrated assessment models. Climatic Change, 102 (3). pp. 671-685. ISSN 1573-1480

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Abstract

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have commonly been used to understand the relationship between the economy, the earth's climate system and climate impacts. We compare the IPCC simulations of CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, and global mean temperature changes associated with five SRES 'marker' emissions scenarios with the responses of three IAMs-DICE, FUND and PAGE-to these same emission scenarios. We also compare differences in simulated temperature increase resulting from moving from a high to a low emissions scenario. These IAMs offer a range of climate outcomes, some of which are inconsistent with those of IPCC, due to differing treatments of the carbon cycle and of the temperature response to radiative forcing. In particular, in FUND temperatures up until 2100 are relatively similar for the four emissions scenarios, and temperature reductions upon switching to lower emissions scenarios are small. PAGE incorporates strong carbon cycle feedbacks, leading to higher CO2 concentrations in the twenty-second century than other models. Such IAMs are frequently applied to determine 'optimal' climate policy in a cost-benefit approach. Models such as FUND which show smaller temperature responses to reducing emissions than IPCC simulations on comparable timescales will underestimate the benefits of emission reductions and hence the calculated 'optimal' level of investment in mitigation.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation
Depositing User:	Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited:	17 Feb 2011 11:20
Last Modified:	09 Oct 2024 13:31
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/20447
DOI:	10.1007/s10584-009-9769-x

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