How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change

van Vuuren, Detlef P., Lowe, Jason, Stehfest, Elke, Gohar, Laila, Hof, Andries F., Hope, Chris, Warren, Rachel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599, Meinshausen, Malte and Plattner, Gian-Kasper (2011) How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change. Climatic Change, 104 (2). pp. 255-285. ISSN 1573-1480

Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)

Abstract

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation
Depositing User:	Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited:	26 Jan 2011 14:00
Last Modified:	09 Oct 2024 13:31
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/19920
DOI:	10.1007/s10584-009-9764-2

Actions (login required)

View Item