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Prütz, Ruben, Fuss, Sabine, Price, Jeff, Warren, Rachel 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599, Forstenhäusler, Nicole, Wu, Yazhen, Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey, Wögerer, Michael, Krisztin, Tamás, Havlík, Petr, Kraxner, Florian, Frank, Stefan, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Doelman, Jonathan C., Daioglou, Vassilis, Humpenöder, Florian, Popp, Alexander and Rogelj, Joeri
(2026)
Climate refugia implications of warming and land-intensive mitigation under overshoot.
Environmental Research Letters, 21 (12).
ISSN 1748-9326
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Abstract
Biodiversity loss is expected to escalate with every increment of global warming. Simultaneously, land-intensive climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation and bioenergy, may further compound biodiversity loss. So far, the magnitude of these two drivers has not been compared in the context of temperature overshoot, meaning the temporary exceedance of a targeted global warming limit. By combining spatial data on climate refugia (areas sheltering biodiversity from climate change), bioenergy cropland, and forestation for multiple cost-effective scenarios with varying levels of climate action and overshoot, we illustrate how both warming and mitigation affect today’s climate refugia across five integrated assessment models. Decisive climate action, compatible with limiting warming to 1.5 °C, reduces the combined loss of today’s climate refugia due to warming and mitigation-related land-use change by more than 50% compared to current climate policies, outweighing potentially negative implications of mitigation at the global level by limiting the magnitude and duration of warming above 1.5 °C. We observe notable differences across regions and the considered model frameworks. Overshoot implications strongly depend on the underlying biodiversity recovery assumptions.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | Data availability statement: The global and regional data outputs are made available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15497447. Climate refugia data can be made available upon reasonable request. Non-spatial scenario data from the AR6 Scenarios Database are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7197970. Land use data from AIM-SSP/RCP Ver2018 are available at: http://doi.org/10.18959/20180403.001. Land use data from GCAM-Demeter are available at: https://doi.org/10.25584/data.2020-07.1357/1644253. Land use data from GLOBIOM are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15964077. Land use data from IMAGE 3.0.1 are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17046335. Land use data from REMIND-MAgPIE 1.6-3.0 are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17047534. Data on the constrained reforestation potential map are available at: www.naturebase.org. Data on the constrained biomass plantation map are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14514051. World administrative boundaries data are available at: https://geonode.wfp.org/layers/geonode%3Awld_bnd_adm0_wfp. Supplementary information available at https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae7b65/data1. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | biodiversity,bioenergy,forestation,overshoot,peak-and-decline,recovery,scenarios,renewable energy, sustainability and the environment,general environmental science,public health, environmental and occupational health,sdg 3 - good health and well-being,sdg 7 - affordable and clean energy,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2100/2105 |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research |
| UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit |
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| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Aug 2026 12:05 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Aug 2026 00:02 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104040 |
| DOI: | 10.1088/1748-9326/ae7b65 |
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