Sleeping Beauties in Economics: Allais, Arrow, and the 75th Anniversary of the 1952 Paris Conference on Risk

Boldyrev, Ivan, Moscati, Ivan and Sugden, Robert ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3401-3139 (2026) Sleeping Beauties in Economics: Allais, Arrow, and the 75th Anniversary of the 1952 Paris Conference on Risk. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. ISSN 1573-0476 (In Press)

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Abstract

The conference on risk held in Paris in May 1952 was a landmark event in economic analysis, especially decision theory. Several groundbreaking ideas were first presented there: some had an immediate impact, while others remained “sleeping beauties,” exerting their influence only much later. These include Allais’s critique of expected utility theory and his paradox, and Arrow’s approach to state-contingent consumption. This paper makes three main contributions. First, on the conference’s 75th anniversary, it reconstructs the rich exchange of ideas that unfolded at the meeting. Second, it offers a systematic account of the theory of decision making under risk that Allais elaborated between 1952 and 1953, after reconsidering the various arguments presented at the conference. Third, it addresses the “sleeping beauty puzzle” associated with Allais and Arrow: why did their ideas have little influence for more than twenty-five years, and how did they rise to prominence in the late 1970s? Because the Allais puzzle is likely more relevant to readers of the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, we focus on it more closely.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	allais paradox,allais,arrow,decision-making under risk,general equilibrium theory,financial economics,masse,morlat,economics, econometrics and finance(all),3* ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2000
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Economic Theory Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Behavioural Economics Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Centre for Competition Policy Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Sciences
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	16 Jul 2026 10:00
Last Modified:	16 Jul 2026 10:00
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103877
DOI:	issn:1573-0476

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