Exploring the Role of Strategic Place‐Based Risk Assessment as a Framework to Support System‐Based Climate Adaptation Planning

Jenkins, Katie, Nicholls, Robert J., Sayers, Paul B., Redhead, John, Price, Jeff, He, Yi, Forstenhäusler, Nicole, Minns, Asher, Pywell, Richard, Tozer, Noah and Carr, Sam (2026) Exploring the Role of Strategic Place‐Based Risk Assessment as a Framework to Support System‐Based Climate Adaptation Planning. Earth's Future, 14 (6). ISSN 2328-4277

Preview

PDF (Earth s Future - 2026 - Jenkins - Exploring the Role of Strategic Place�Based Risk Assessment as a Framework to Support) - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (3MB) | Preview

Abstract

Climate change adaptation requires more place-based evidence to understand the context of historic, present and future vulnerability and how this translates to local patterns of risk. This study illustrates a globally relevant framework focused on multiple and often interconnected climate risks in a major coastal lowland, the Fens region, UK. It offers a practical approach, moving beyond a sectoral assessment, to produce a strategic, place-based assessment of risk pertinent for regions facing multi-hazard multi-response challenges. The study draws on a harmonized suite of spatially explicit climate risk models and regional literature to provide accessible information on key regional risks at near-term (2030s–2050s) and long-term (2070s–2100) timescales for flooding, drought, water scarcity, heat, agriculture, biodiversity and sea-level rise (SLR). Including SLR as an additional growing existential risk continuing beyond 2100 identifies an issue that is not widely recognised and yet is fundamental to the Fens future. It indicates more radical approaches to adaptation will be necessary beyond 2100, which may influence decisions through the 21st Century. Fundamental to informing and supporting this shift in thinking is the provision of data and information that can help stakeholders to engage, understand and approach adaptation planning in different ways. The framework has potential to support risk assessments for other coastal lowlands around the UK and internationally, which face coupled climate hazards and risks alongside SLR, and where more radical approaches or changes to manage future risk will be required in the longer-term, alongside local and national socio-economic and environmental objectives.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data Availability Statement: The data that underpin this study are cited in the references. In addition, the hydrological model outputs are published. The simulated discharge timeseries of all the catchments modelled are available in Newcastle University; University of East Anglia (2024) and summary metric data sets available in Newcastle University (2024).The HARM model code and input data is available in Jenkins (2023). National and sub‐national regional scale outputs from the FFE are published in Sayers et al. (2020). Climate data are available for the UKCP18 Regional Projections for 1980–2080 in Met Office Hadley Centre (2018) and socioeconomic data in Cambridge Econometrics, University Of Edinburgh, University Of Exeter & UK Centre For Ecology & Hydrology (2021)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 6 - clean water and sanitation,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/clean_water_and_sanitation
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Geosciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Related URLs:	https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	11 Jun 2026 10:24
Last Modified:	11 Jun 2026 10:24
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103355
DOI:	10.1029/2025EF007417

Downloads

Actions (login required)

View Item