Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise

Lionello, Piero, Di Fant, Valeria, Pasquier, Ulysse, Tosi, Luigi, le Cozannet, Gonéri, Nicholls, Robert, Cramer, Wolfgang, Cremades, Roger, Giupponi, Carlo Giupponi, Hinkel, Jochen, Sfriso, Adriano, Teatini, Pietro, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., Umgiesser, Georg and Haasnoot, Marjolijn (2026) Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise. Scientific Reports. ISSN 2045-2322

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Abstract

The substantial risks posed to Venice and its lagoon by ongoing and projected sea-level rise (SLR) require unprecedented long-term adaptation strategies. We map the evolution of development pathways and the progressive shrinking of the solution space as SLR advances, identifying adaptation tipping points and analysing the relative pros and cons of alternative measures. The analysis highlights trade-offs among environmental quality, heritage preservation, social well-being and relevant Sustainable Development Goals, and costs increasing with SLR. With present insufficient greenhouse gas mitigation policies, the current open lagoon strategy, with mobile barriers and multiple accommodation measures, is likely to encounter hard limits within the current century. Follow-up strategies include ring-dikes isolating the city from the rest of the lagoon, or a closed lagoon with permanent coastal dams, each preserving different combinations of values while entailing major ecological and socio-cultural transitions. Under extreme SLR, relocation of monuments to suitable inland areas and abandonment would be the only remaining strategy, which might become unavoidable in the 22nd century under current climate policies and an Antarctic ice-sheet collapse. Rapid mitigation could still avoid the most disruptive long-term outcomes.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data Availability: Sea-level projection data used in this study are publicly available from the following repositories: Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6382554 Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5139890 IPCC AR6 Data Distribution Centre (Distilled and Bias-Corrected Sea Level Projections): https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_DistBC Code and associated data described in: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 (see section “Code and Data Availability”). Land elevation datasets of the areas surrounding the Venice Lagoon and of the lagoon islands used in this study are publicly available from the Italian Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security via the National Geoportal (https://gn.mase.gov.it/portale/en/home) and the Spatial Data Access Portal (https://sim.mase.gov.it/portalediaccesso/mappe/#/viewer/new). For Figure 1 and related analyses, land elevation data were extracted from a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) provided by the Veneto Region, available at https://idt2.regione.veneto.it/idt/downloader/download. High-resolution elevation datasets of the Venice lagoon boundaries with 1 m and 2 m ground resolution (Figure 2 and associated text), derived from airborne LiDAR surveys, were acquired by the Italian Ministry of the Environment and the Protection of Land and Sea under the Extraordinary Environmental Detection Plan (PST-A). These datasets are publicly accessible via the portals of the Italian Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security listed above. Ground elevation data of the Venice historical centre used in this study to compute the fraction of flooded area are publicly available from the RAMSES project promoted by the Municipality of Venice and implemented by Insula S.p.A., via the Insula S.p.A. portal (http://smu.insula.it/index.html). Information used for cost estimates was obtained from the peer-reviewed scientific literature cited in the manuscript.
Faculty \ School:	University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	16 Apr 2026 13:36
Last Modified:	16 Apr 2026 13:36
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102789
DOI:	issn:2045-2322

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