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ToolsTakano, Yohei, Ilyina, Tatiana, Tjiputra, Jerry, Eddebbar, Yassir A, Berthet, Sarah, Bopp, Laurent, Buitenhuis, Erik, Butenschön, Momme, Christian, James R., Dunne, John P., Gröger, Matthias, Hayashida, Hakase, Hieronymus, Jenny, Koenigk, Torben, Krasting, John P., Long, Mathew C., Lovato, Tomas, Nakano, Hideyuki, Palmieri, Julien, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tatebe, Hiroaki, Tsujino, Hiroyuki, Urakawa, Shogo, Watanabe, Michio and Yool, Andrew (2023) Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: Insights from forced and coupled models. Frontiers in Marine Science, 10. ISSN 2296-7745
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Abstract
Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O2). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×1014 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, −0.37 ± 0.15×1014 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and −1.06 ± 0.68×1014 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is −0.98×1014 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O2. Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O2 changes.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | Data availability statement: Publicly available datasets were analyzed in this study. The CMIP6 and OMIP data can be found here: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The gridded observational dissolved oxygen dataset can be found in the websites (https://o2.eas.gatech.edu/data.html; https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/816978). Ocean temperature and salinity data could be found here: https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/icdc/data/ocean.html. Cheng’s dataset can be found here: http://www.ocean.iap.ac.cn/ and Ishii’s ocean heat content dataset can be found at the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) website: https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/english/ohc/ohc_global_en.html. Funding information: YT is supported as part of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research and a NERC-NSF grant (C-STREAMS, reference NE/W009579/1). This research was also supported by the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 641816 (CRESCENDO). This project (TI) has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 820989 (COMFORT), under grant agreement No. 101003536 (ESM2025–Earth System Models for the Future), and under grant agreement No. 821003 (4C). JT acknowledges Research Council of Norway funded project CE2COAST (318477) and OceanICU project under grant agreement no. 101083922. JT and JS were also supported by the Norwegian Research Council (project INES, grant no. 270061). YAE acknowledges funding support from the National Science Foundation OCE grant number 1948599. MB and TL received funding from the Italian Ministry MIUR through the JPI project CE2COAST, grant no. 318477. JP and AY were supported by the UK National Environmental Research Council funding under the ESM LTSM (NE/N018036/1), TerraFIRMA (NE/ W004895/1) and CLASS (NE/R015953/1) projects. MW and HTa were supported by MEXT program for the advanced studies of climate change projection (SENTAN) Grant Numbers JPMXD0722680395 and JPMXD0722681344. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | model spin-up,model’s equilibrium states,ocean and coupled model simulations,ocean deoxygenation,ocean warming,oceanography,global and planetary change,aquatic science,water science and technology,environmental science (miscellaneous),ocean engineering ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1910 |
| Faculty \ School: | University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences |
| UEA Research Groups: | University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences |
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| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Jun 2025 09:30 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Jun 2025 11:30 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99596 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fmars.2023.1139917 |
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