More realistic plankton simulation models will improve projections of ocean ecosystem responses to global change

Flynn, Kevin J., Atkinson, Angus, Beardall, John, Berges, John A., Boersma, Maarten, Brunet, Christophe, Calbet, Albert, Caron, Dave A., Dam, Hans G., Glibert, Patricia M., Hansen, Per Juel, Jin, Peng, Lønborg, Christian, Mayor, Daniel J., Menden-Deuer, Susanne, Mock, Thomas, Mulholland, Margaret R., Needham, David M., Polimene, Luca, Poulton, Alex J., Robinson, Carol, Rokitta, Sebastian D., Rost, Björn, Saiz, Enric, Scanlan, David J., Schmidt, Katrin, Sherr, Evelyn, Stoecker, Diane K., Svensen, Camilla, Thiele, Stefan, Thingstad, Tron F. and Våge, Selina (2025) More realistic plankton simulation models will improve projections of ocean ecosystem responses to global change. Nature Ecology and Evolution. ISSN 2397-334X

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Abstract

Plankton models form the core of marine ecosystem simulators used from regional resource and ecosystem management through to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections. In this Perspective, we suggest that extant models, and our confidence in their outputs, will benefit from stronger alignment with empirical knowledge about plankton. Such refinements will enhance understanding of biodiversity, ecophysiology, trophic dynamics and biogeochemistry. We recommend key steps to resolve the disconnect between empirical research and simulation models describing plankton ecology, with an aim to increase the utility of such models for applied uses. A central challenge is characterizing the complexity of plankton diversity and activity in ways that are amenable for model incorporation. We advocate that experts in empirical science are best placed to advise the development of next generation models to address these challenges and we propose a series of steps to achieve that engagement, including their involvement in the design and exploitation of plankton digital twins. We also recommend that plankton science would benefit from integrating simulation modelling as a core tool supporting empirical studies and education, akin to the integration of molecular biological approaches which benefited from concerted actions supported by directed funding.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Funding information: This work was funded by UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (NE/X010783/1; Simulating Plankton - getting it right in the era of Digital Twins of The Ocean), under the direction of KJ Flynn.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 14 - life below water ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Wolfson Centre for Advanced Environmental Microbiology Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Related URLs:	https://rdcu.be/eugVI https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-0...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	09 Jun 2025 16:30
Last Modified:	16 Jul 2025 19:33
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99419
DOI:	10.1038/s41559-025-02788-3

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