How do emission factors contribute to the uncertainty in biomass burning emissions in the Amazon and Cerrado?

Mataveli, Guilherme, Jones, Matthew W., Pereira, Gabriel, Freitas, Saulo R., Oliveira, Valter, Silva Oliveira, Bruno and Aragão, Luiz E. O. C. (2025) How do emission factors contribute to the uncertainty in biomass burning emissions in the Amazon and Cerrado? Atmosphere, 16 (4). ISSN 2073-4433

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Abstract

Fires drive global ecosystem change, impacting carbon dynamics, atmospheric composition, biodiversity, and human well-being. Biomass burning, a major outcome of fires, significantly contributes to greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Among these, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is particularly concerning due to its adverse effects on air quality and health, and its substantial yet uncertain role in Earth’s energy balance. Variability in emission factors (EFs) remains a key source of uncertainty in emission estimates. This study evaluates PM2.5 emission sensitivity to EFs variability in Brazil’s Amazon and Cerrado biomes over 2002–2023 using the 3BEM_FRP model implemented in the PREP-CHEM-SRC tool. We updated the EFs with values and uncertainty ranges from Andreae (2019), which reflect a more comprehensive literature review than earlier datasets. The results reveal that the annual average PM2.5 emissions varied by up to 162% in the Amazon (1213 Gg yr−1 to 3172 Gg yr−1) and 184% in the Cerrado (601 Gg yr−1 to 1709 Gg yr−1). The Average peak emissions at the grid-cell level reached 5688 Mg yr−1 in the “Arc of Deforestation” region under the High-end EF scenario. Notably, the PM2.5 emissions from Amazon forest areas increased over time despite shrinking forest cover, indicating that Amazonian forests are becoming more vulnerable to fire. In the Cerrado, savannas are the primary land cover contributing to the total PM2.5 emissions, accounting for 64% to 80%. These findings underscore the importance of accurate, region-specific EFs for improving emission models and reducing uncertainties.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data Availability Statement: The annual PM2.5 emission estimates associated with biomass burning in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes for the 2002–2023 period, based on the four EF scenarios considered in the PREP-CHEM-SRC 1.8.3, are available in the Zenodo repository at the following link: https://zenodo.org/records/14652150 (accessed on 25 February 2025). Funding information: G.M. and L.E.O.C.A. thank the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP; grants 2019/25701-8, 2020/15230-5, 2023/03206-0) for funding. L.E.O.C.A. also thanks the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq; grant 314416/2020-0) for funding.
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Related URLs:	https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/4/423
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	23 Apr 2025 14:30
Last Modified:	23 Apr 2025 14:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99059
DOI:	10.3390/atmos16040423

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