Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?

Kenny, John and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2025) Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game? Electoral Studies, 95. ISSN 0261-3794

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Abstract

Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	election forecasting,united kingdom,political economy,elections,political science and international relations ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/3300/3320
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	15 Apr 2025 16:30
Last Modified:	15 Apr 2025 16:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99049
DOI:	10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933

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