Incidence and mortality of melanoma in situ and malignant melanoma in England between 2001 and 2020

Karponis, Dimitrios, van Bodegraven, Birgitta, Mistry, Khaylen, Nikolaou, Vasiliki, Stratigos, Alexander J., Levell, Nick J. and Venables, Zoe C. (2025) Incidence and mortality of melanoma in situ and malignant melanoma in England between 2001 and 2020. British Journal of Dermatology, 193 (4). 687–695. ISSN 0007-0963

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Abstract

Background An increase in the incidence of melanoma has been reported globally since the late twentieth century, while mortality from melanoma is no longer increasing in England and other countries. Improved therapeutics have reduced mortality. However, this phenomenon implicates ‘overdiagnosis’, where thinner melanomas of unclear malignant potential are being diagnosed possibly due to ‘diagnostic drift’. Objectives To assess the age-standardized and age-specific incidence and mortality trends for melanoma in situ (MIS) and malignant melanoma (MM) in England between 2001 and 2020 by age and gender. Methods We analysed routinely collected data from the National Disease Registration Service for MIS and MM in England between 2001 and 2020. We used joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the trends and average annual percentage change (APC) in age-standardized (using the 2013 European Standard Population) incidence (EASIR) and mortality (EASMR) and age-specific incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates, by age and gender per 100 000 person years (PYs). Results Between 2001 and 2020, 86 792 cases of MIS and 220 286 cases of MM were recorded in England. The EASIR (per 100 000 PYs) for MM increased most rapidly during 2001–6 (from 14.6 to 19.6; APC 6.3%); the rate of increase slowed during 2006–14 (APC 4.1%; EASIR 2014 26.7) and decelerated further between 2014 and 2019 (APC 1.4%; EASIR 2019 28.7). The EASIR for MIS (per 100 000 PYs) increased rapidly during 2001–15 (from 4.5 to 12.5; APC 7.5%) and subsequently slowed between 2015 and 2019 (to EASIR 2019 13.3; APC 1.9%). In individuals 0–24 years old, the ASIR of MM and MIS has been decreasing since the late 2000s, whereas the ASIR of MM in those aged > 50 years is rising, with the greatest increases seen in those aged > 70 years. Since the early 2010s, EASMRs from MM have remained higher in men. ASMRs have reduced in adults < 74 years of age; however, rates have continued to increase in those > 75 years old. Conclusions The deceleration in the incidence rates of MM and MIS may be due to stabilization of any diagnostic drift, ethnicity diversity and reduced sun-seeking behaviours, particularly in younger generations. Mortality rates from MM have decreased since therapeutic developments in the early 2010s, and in younger generations before this. MM incidence and mortality are increasing most rapidly in men aged > 75 years, the age group with the highest incidence and expected growth in the future. These results support the importance of early melanoma detection, public health sun-awareness campaigns and better melanoma diagnostics.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data availability: This study uses data that have been provided by patients and collected by the NHS as part of their care and support. The data are collated, maintained and quality assured by the National Disease Registration Service, which is part of NHS England. Funding sources: This study received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Norwich Epidemiology Centre Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Norwich Epidemiology Centre Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Centres > Population Health (former - to 2025) Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Centres > Public Health
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	15 Apr 2025 09:30
Last Modified:	18 Oct 2025 13:31
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99037
DOI:	10.1093/bjd/ljaf136

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