Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature

Santer, Benjamin D., Po-Chedley, Stephen, Zhao, Lilong, Zou, Cheng-Zhi, Fu, Qiang, Solomon, Susan, Thompson, David W. J., Mears, Carl and Taylor, Karl E. (2023) Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120 (20). ISSN 0027-8424

Preview

PDF (santer-et-al-exceptional-stratospheric-contribution-to-human-fingerprints-on-atmospheric-temperature) - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (6MB) | Preview

Abstract

In 1967, scientists used a simple climate model to predict that human-caused increases in atmospheric CO2 should warm Earth's troposphere and cool the stratosphere. This important signature of anthropogenic climate change has been documented in weather balloon and satellite temperature measurements extending from near-surface to the lower stratosphere. Stratospheric cooling has also been confirmed in the mid to upper stratosphere, a layer extending from roughly 25 to 50km above the Earth's surface (S25-50). To date, however, S25-50 temperatures have not been used in pattern-based attribution studies of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we perform such a "fingerprint" study with satellite-derived patterns of temperature change that extend from the lower troposphere to the upper stratosphere. Including S25-50 information increases signal-to-noise ratios by a factor of five, markedly enhancing fingerprint detectability. Key features of this global-scale human fingerprint include stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming at all latitudes, with stratospheric cooling amplifying with height. In contrast, the dominant modes of internal variability in S25-50 have smaller-scale temperature changes and lack uniform sign. These pronounced spatial differences between S25-50 signal and noise patterns are accompanied by large cooling of S25-50 (1 to 2 °C over 1986 to 2022) and low S25-50 noise levels. Our results explain why extending "vertical fingerprinting" to the mid to upper stratosphere yields incontrovertible evidence of human effects on the thermal structure of Earth's atmosphere.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data, Materials, and Software Availability: Observational satellite temperature data used in this study are publicly available at Remote Sensing Systems, the University of Alabama at Huntsville, and the Center for Satellite Applications and Research. Synthetic satellite temperature data from CMIP6 simulation output are stored at: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/research/DandA/. Analysis and plotting codes are available on Zenodo at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7803688.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change detection and attribution,climate modeling,satellite data,stratospheric temperature,general ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1000
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	14 Apr 2025 13:30
Last Modified:	29 Apr 2025 13:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99024
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.2300758120

Downloads

Actions (login required)

View Item