Climate models underestimate global decreases in high-cloud amount with warming

Wilson Kemsley, S., Nowack, P. and Ceppi, P. (2025) Climate models underestimate global decreases in high-cloud amount with warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (7). ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

Cloud feedback has prevailed as a leading source of uncertainty in climate model projections under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Cloud-controlling factor (CCF) analysis is an approach used to observationally constrain cloud feedback, and subsequently the climate sensitivity. Although high clouds contribute significantly toward uncertainty, they have received comparatively little attention in CCF and other observational analyses. Here we use CCF analysis for the first time to constrain the high-cloud radiative feedback, focusing on the cloud amount component owing to its dominant contribution to uncertainty in high-cloud feedback. Globally, observations indicate larger decreases in high cloudiness than state-of-the-art climate models suggest. In fact, half of the 16 models considered here predict radiative feedbacks inconsistent with observations, likely due to misrepresenting the stability iris mechanism. Despite the suggested strong high-cloud amount decreases with warming, observations point toward a near-neutral net high-cloud amount radiative feedback, owing to almost canceling longwave and shortwave contributions.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Natural Environment Research Council (GrantNumber(s): NE/T006250/1, NE/V012045/1; HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council (GrantNumber(s): EP/Y036123/1).
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	08 Apr 2025 17:30
Last Modified:	20 Apr 2025 06:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/99005
DOI:	10.1029/2024GL113316

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