Election forecasting: Political economy models

Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Kenny, John, Leiter, Debra, Murr, Andreas Erwin, Ogili, Onyinye B., Stegmaier, Mary and Tien, Charles (2025) Election forecasting: Political economy models. International Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070

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Abstract

We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	election forecasting,political economy models,presidential elections,parliamentary elections,advanced democracies,developing democracies,sociology and political science,4* ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/3300/3312
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2025 18:30
Last Modified:	28 Mar 2025 13:15
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/98791
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.006

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