National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate

Redhead, John W., Brown, Matt, Price, Jeff, Robinson, Emma, Nicholls, Robert J., Warren, Rachel and Pywell, Richard F. (2025) National horizon scanning for future crops under a changing UK climate. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 4 (1). ISSN 2692-4587

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Abstract

Most national assessments of climate change-related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process-based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high-level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre-industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 2 - zero hunger,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/zero_hunger
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	28 Jan 2025 23:50
Last Modified:	30 Jan 2025 01:42
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/98324
DOI:

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