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Torbenson, M. C. A., Esper, J., Brázdil, R., Büntgen, U., Olesen, J. E., Semarádová, D., Vlach, M., Urban, O., Balek, J., Kolář, T., Rybníček, M., Pernicová, N., Reinig, F., Martinez del Castillo, E., Jones, P. D. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5032-5493 and Trnka, M.
(2024)
Past and future climate-driven changes of agricultural land in Central Europe.
Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (24).
ISSN 0094-8276
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Abstract
Europe is expected to experience major climatic shifts during the 21st century but the impact on agricultural productivity from such changes is uncertain. Here, we combine proxy, instrumental, and model data to assess interannual to multi-centennial changes in central European agroclimate over the past 2,000 years and projections into the near future. Whereas early 21st century conditions are rare but not fully unprecedented, more than half of the area that was considered highly productive throughout the Common Era in central Europe currently falls outside of that definition. This trend will likely continue as even the most conservative climate projections push central Europe outside the range of past natural variability of changes to agroclimatic zones. Reconstructed extremes prior to the instrumental record align well with contemporary documentary records of societal upheaval. Forecasted changes to the main agroclimatic drivers require substantial adaptation in land use and agricultural management strategies of considerable costs.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Data Availability Statement: The annually resolved reconstructions of TS and WB, as well as annually resolved region-wide mean zone and areal percentages of each zone, are available through Torbenson (2024). The underlying tree-ring stable isotope data are available through the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (https://ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology/tree-ring). Funding Information: This work was supported by ERC (Advanced Grant #882727), Czech Science Foundation (#23-08049S) and Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic (CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004635). Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | geophysics,earth and planetary sciences(all) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1908 |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Jan 2025 01:06 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Jan 2025 01:09 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/98240 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2024GL112363 |
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