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Atkins, Jamie R. C., Tinker, Jonathan, Graham, Jennifer A. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1950-5266, Scaife, Adam A. and Halloran, Paul R.
(2024)
Seasonal forecasting of the European North-West shelf seas: limits of winter and summer sea surface temperature predictability.
Climate Dynamics, 62 (11).
pp. 10113-10130.
ISSN 0930-7575
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Abstract
The European North-West shelf seas (NWS) support economic interests and provide environmental services to adjacent countries. Expansion of offshore activities, such as renewable energy infrastructure, aquaculture, and growth of international shipping, will place increasingly complex demands on the marine environment over the coming decades. Skilful forecasting of NWS properties on seasonal timescales will help to effectively manage these activities. Here we quantify the skill of an operational large-ensemble ocean-atmosphere coupled global forecasting system (GloSea), as well as benchmark persistence forecasts, for predictions of NWS sea surface temperature (SST) at 2–4 months lead time in winter and summer. We identify sources of and limits to SST predictability, considering what additional skill may be available in the future. We find that GloSea NWS SST skill is generally high in winter and low in summer. GloSea outperforms simple persistence forecasts by adding information about atmospheric variability, but only to a modest extent as persistence of anomalies in the initial conditions contributes substantially to predictability. Where persistence is low – for example in seasonally stratified regions – GloSea forecasts show lower skill. GloSea skill can be degraded by model deficiencies in the relatively coarse global ocean component, which lacks dynamic tides and subsequently fails to robustly represent local circulation and mixing. However, “atmospheric mode matched” tests show potential for improving prediction skill of currently low performing regions if atmospheric circulation forecasts can be improved. This underlines the importance of coupled atmosphere-ocean model development for NWS seasonal forecasting applications.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | Data availability statement: GloSea5 and GloSea6 SST and Z500 hindcast data used in this study (on native grids) were accessed directly from the UK Met Office but are also freely available (interpolated to 1° × 1° grid) from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S; https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68dd14c3). ERA5 data is also freely available from C3S (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573). CMEMS-v5 data is freely available from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00059). Funding information: This work was supported by a GW4 + Doctoral Training Partnership studentship from the Natural Environmental Research Council (NE/S007504/1) and the UK Met Office. AAS and JT were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (HCCP) funded by the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT), the UK Public Weather Service and the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). JAG was supported by the Cefas Seedcorn studentship programme. |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences |
| UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Nov 2024 16:30 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Nov 2024 06:30 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/97466 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-024-07439-0 |
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