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Mayot, Nicolas 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4255-5939, Buitenhuis, Erik T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6274-5583, Wright, Rebecca M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2333-6247, Hauck, Judith, Bakker, Dorothee C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9234-5337 and Le Quéré, Corinne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-0452
(2024)
Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink during 2000–2022.
Nature Communications, 15.
ISSN 2041-1723
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Abstract
The ocean will ultimately store most of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by human activities. Despite its importance, estimates of the 2000−2022 trend in the ocean CO2 sink differ by a factor of two between observation-based products and process-based models. Here we address this discrepancy using a hybrid approach that preserves the consistency of known processes but constrains the outcome using observations. We show that the hybrid approach reproduces the stagnation of the ocean CO2 sink in the 1990s and its reinvigoration in the 2000s suggested by observation-based products and matches their amplitude. It suggests that process-based models underestimate the amplitude of the decadal variability in the ocean CO2 sink, but that observation-based products on average overestimate the decadal trend in the 2010s. The hybrid approach constrains the 2000−2022 trend in the ocean CO2 sink to 0.42 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1 decade−1, and by inference the total land CO2 sink to 0.28 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 decade−1.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Data available here: https://osf.io/2kzps/?view_only=6ad809f1887342a0a19907e40a33e7cf |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| UEA Research Groups: | University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Oct 2024 09:30 |
| Last Modified: | 19 Nov 2024 01:31 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/96849 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-024-52641-7 |
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