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Stjern, Camilla W., Joshi, Manoj 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811, Wilcox, Laura J., Gollop, Amee ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9111-6081 and Samset, Bjørn H.
(2024)
Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) in Asia using the intermediate-resolution global climate model FORTE2.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.
ISSN 1942-2466
Abstract
Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are rapidly changing, in amounts, composition and geographical distribution. In East and South Asia in particular, strong aerosol trends combined with high population densities imply high potential vulnerability to climate change. Improved knowledge of how near-term climate and weather influences these changes is urgently needed, to allow for better-informed adaptation strategies. To understand and decompose the local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol emission changes, we perform a set of Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) using the reduced-complexity climate model FORTE 2.0 (FORTE2). Absorbing and scattering aerosols are perturbed separately, over East Asia and South Asia, to assess their distinct influences on climate. In this paper, we first present an updated version of FORTE2, which includes treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions. We then document and validate the local responses over a range of parameters, showing for instance that removing emissions of absorbing aerosols over both East Asia and South Asia is projected to cause a local drying, alongside a range of more widespread effects. We find that SyRAP-FORTE2 is able to reproduce the responses to Asian aerosol changes documented in the literature, and that it can help us decompose regional climate impacts of aerosols from the two regions. Finally, we show how SyRAP-FORTE2 has regionally linear responses in temperature and precipitation and can be used as input to emulators and tunable simple climate models, and as a ready-made tool for projecting the local and remote effects of near-term changes in Asian aerosol emissions.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Data availability statement: The present analyses is based on model simulations using the FORTE2 (version v2.0) reduced-complexity climate model. The model is freely available for download (Blaker et al., 2020). Aerosol perturbation simulations use AOD from the CAMSRA, as detailed in the Methods section. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Reanalysis (CAMSRA) was downloaded from the CAMS Atmosphere Data Store (ADS) (CAMS-EAC4, 2019, 2020; Inness et al., 2019). Figure 5 compares FORTE2 sea level pressure and winds to that from ERA5 reanalysis (Hersbach et al., 2020). All FORTE2 model results are available for download at the repository NIRD Research Data Archive (Stjern, 2024). Python code for analysis of the FORTE2 results as well as for plotting figures in the manuscript will be available for download at the same repository. Funding information: All coauthors were supported by the Research Council of Norway [Grant 324182 (CA3THY)]. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| UEA Research Groups: | University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 03 Sep 2024 16:32 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Dec 2024 01:40 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/96492 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2023MS004171 |
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