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Price, Jeff, Forstenhäusler, Nicole, Graham, Erin, Osborn, Timothy J. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799 and Warren, Rachel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599
(2024)
Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Waterton Lakes National Park Of Canada under differing levels of warming.
Zenodo.
Abstract
Waterton Lakes National Park is among the top 46% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. While the higher elevations are projected to be relatively resilient to climate change, even at 4°C, many parts of the lower elevations of the park are projected to require increasing levels of adaptation effort as warming levels exceed 2°C. Averaged over the entire area of this large park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 51.7% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 8.6% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 47.4% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 77.1% of its terrestrial biodiversity. Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by -0.4° - +1.8°C (January). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for April-October (up to 1 in 20 years for July). Eight months have seen decreases in precipitation (December-March, May, and July-September) with the rest seeing increases. Models project that most months will become wetter except for June-September. These changes in precipitation, accompanied by warmer weather, suggest a potential increase in overall fire risk. The number of months classified as being in severe drought has gone up by half between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015; the number of waterlogged months have also increased suggesting an increase in the extremes in both directions. With 2°C warming (global, relative to pre-industrial) the number of months in severe drought is projected to almost double. Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, especially at higher elevations, taking into account changes in extreme events (heat and severe drought). However, lower elevation areas would need increasing levels of adaptation effort, especially with warming levels of 2°C and above.
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