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Price, Jeff, Forstenhäusler, Nicole, Graham, Erin, Osborn, Timothy 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799 and Warren, Rachel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599
(2024)
Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Jau National Park, Brazil under differing levels of warming.
Zenodo.
Abstract
Jau National Park, Brazil is the largest national park in South America and among the top 46% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. In general, this national park is resilient to climate change to 1.5°C. However, by 3°C the park is beginning to transform to a different habitat type with major adaptation needed to maintain biodiversity across multiple taxa. Business as usual conservation, taking into account changes in the likelihood of extreme events, would only be adequate to approximately 2°C. Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 51.3% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with none of the reserve remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, only 6% of the area would remain an overall climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 76.9% of its terrestrial biodiversity. Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.5° – 0.8°C. With warming levels of 1.5°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 20 years in 1961-1990 for all months. Eight months have become drier and four wetter. Models project that nine months will become drier with only March, April and December becoming wetter. The number of months with severe drought has decreased by half between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. However, with climate change the number of months in severe drought are projected to increase substantially. With 2°C warming, severe droughts lasting longer than two years are projected to occur. Biodiversity adaptation options generally only allow for business-as-usual conservation to 2.0°C, especially in the eastern parts of the park, taking into account changes in extreme events (especially heat and severe drought). However, at temperatures above 2.0°C, all of the park will require substantial amounts of adaptation to maintain much of the current biodiversity, especially plants. At temperatures much above 2°C facilitated change may be an adaptation strategy to consider.
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