Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Skinner, Daniel Thomas (2023) Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Doctoral thesis, University of East Anglia.

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Abstract

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Though it is a tropical phenomenon, the MJO also excites a response in the extratropics, producing teleconnection patterns. These teleconnections impact on the weather and climate of the extratropics, providing a valuable source of predictability. Whilst MJO teleconnection patterns are predictable, they can be modulated by external factors. The extratropical response to the MJO is sensitive to changes in both MJO forcing and the extratropical background circulation, which in turn can be modulated by various modes of climatic variability. The question of if, and how, the extratropical response to the MJO varies on decadal time scales is yet to be answered.

Here the ability of coupled climate models to simulate MJO teleconnections is assessed, before both reanalysis and model data are used to examine the decadal variability of the extratropical response to the MJO. We find that climate models can capture some of response to the MJO, but cannot represent all of the processes underpinning MJO teleconnections. Evidence is then provided for decadal scale variability of the extratropical response to the MJO over the past 50 years. Finally, a coupled climate model is used to show that both Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are able to modulate MJO teleconnections on decadal time scales.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Mathematics (former - to 2024)
Depositing User:	Chris White
Date Deposited:	11 Jun 2024 10:29
Last Modified:	11 Jun 2024 10:29
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/95544
DOI:

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