Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK

Gudde, Ross, He, Yi, Pasquier, Ulysse, Forstenhäusler, Nicole, Noble, Ciar ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3003-2789 and Zha, Qianyu (2024) Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK. Natural Hazards. ISSN 0921-030X

Preview

PDF (s11069-024-06590-5) - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (3MB) | Preview

Abstract

Flooding represents the greatest natural threat to the UK, presenting severe risk to populations along coastlines and floodplains through extreme tidal surge and hydrometeorological events. Climate change is projected to significantly elevate flood risk through increased severity and frequency of occurrences, which will be exacerbated by external drivers of risk such as property development and population growth throughout floodplains. This investigation explores the entire flood hazard modelling chain, utilising the nonparametric bias correction of UKCP18 regional climate projections, the distributed HBV-TYN hydrological model and HEC-RAS hydraulic model to assess future manifestation of flood hazard within the Broadland Catchment, UK. When assessing the independent impact of extreme river discharge and storm surge events as well as the impact of a compound event of the two along a high emission scenario, exponential increases in hazard extent over time were observed. The flood extent increases from 197 km2 in 1990 to 200 km2 in 2030, and 208 km2 in 2070. In parallel, exponential population exposure increases were found from 13,917 (1990) to 14,088 (2030) to 18,785 (2070). This methodology could see integration into policy-based flood risk management by use of the developed hazard modelling tool for future planning and suitability of existing infrastructure at a catchment scale.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	flood hazard,sea level rise,climate change,compound flooding,population exposure,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	23 Apr 2024 13:31
Last Modified:	29 Apr 2024 00:07
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/94992
DOI:	10.1007/s11069-024-06590-5

Downloads

Actions (login required)

View Item