Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4°C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries

Warren, Rachel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599, Price, Jeff, Forstenhäusler, Nicole, Andrews, Oliver, Brown, Sally, Ebi, Kristie, Gernaat, David, Goodwin, Philip, Guan, Dabo, He, Yi, Manful, Desmond, Yin, Zhiqiang, Hu, Yi, Jenkins, Katie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6740-5139, Jenkins, Rhosanna, Kennedy-Asser, Alan, Osborn, Timothy J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799, Vuuren, Detlef, Wallace, Craig, Wang, Daoping and Wright, Rebecca ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2333-6247 (2024) Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4°C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries. Climatic Change, 177 (3). ISSN 0165-0009

[thumbnail of Warren_etal_2024_ClimaticChange]
PDF (Warren_etal_2024_ClimaticChange) - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (974kB) | Preview


The Topical Collection “Accrual of Climate Change Risk in Six Vulnerable Countries” provides a harmonised assessment of risks to human and natural systems due to global warming of 1.5–4 °C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India) using a consistent set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. It compares risks in 2100 if warming has reached 3 °C, broadly corresponding to current global greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, including countries’ National Determined Contributions, rather than the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to ‘well below’ 2 °C and ‘pursuing efforts’ to limit to 1.5 °C. Global population is assumed either constant at year 2000 levels or to increase to 9.2 billion by 2100. In either case, greater warming is projected to lead, in all six countries, to greater exposure of land and people to drought and fluvial flood hazard, greater declines in biodiversity, and greater reductions in the yield of maize and wheat. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared with ~ 3 °C, is projected to deliver large benefits for all six countries, including reduced economic damages due to fluvial flooding. The greatest projected benefits are the avoidance of a large increase in exposure of agricultural land to severe drought, which is 61%, 43%, 18%, and 21% lower in Ethiopia, China, Ghana, and India at 1.5 °C than at 3 °C, whilst avoided increases in human exposure to severe drought are 20–80% lower at 1.5 °C than 3 °C across the six countries. Climate refugia for plants are largely preserved at 1.5 °C warming in Ghana, China, and Ethiopia, but refugia shrink in areal extent by a factor of 2, 3, 3, 4, and 10 in Ghana, China, India, Ethiopia, and Brazil, respectively, if warming reaches 3 °C. Economic damages associated with sea-level rise are projected to increase in coastal nations, but more slowly if warming were limited to 1.5 °C. Actual benefits on the ground will also depend on national and local contexts and the extent of future investment in adaptation.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Data availability: This publication is based on the extraction of data from an existing well-established database, and hence, code availability is not applicable. The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Funding information: This research leading to these results received funding from the UK Government, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, as part of the 1.5–4 °C warming project under contract number UKSBS CR18083-S2.
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change,ecosystem services,human systems,risk,global and planetary change,atmospheric science,sdg 15 - life on land,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2306
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre
Related URLs:
Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 04 Mar 2024 18:36
Last Modified: 20 Mar 2024 11:31
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/94527
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03646-6


Downloads per month over past year

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item