Agricultural investment behaviour and contingency: Experimental evidence from Uganda

D'Exelle, Ben ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9332-5223, Munro, Alistair and Verschoor, Arjan (2024) Agricultural investment behaviour and contingency: Experimental evidence from Uganda. World Development, 173. ISSN 0305-750X

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Abstract

Underinvestment in agriculture – a major cause of rural poverty – may be due to difficulties in detecting ‘contingency’, defined as the influence one may exert on the outcome of a decision-making situation. Recently experienced contingency may create a mismatch between perceived and actual contingency in an investment decision-making situation, leading to sub-optimal investment behaviour. To test this, we use an experiment with poor farmers in Uganda used to low levels of contingency, as many factors (e.g., the weather, pests, price fluctuations) obscure the link between farm investment and outcomes. We find that in situations in which some contingency is present, investment levels respond positively to recently experienced contingency. In situations in which no contingency is present (‘non-contingency’), investment responds negatively to recently experienced non-contingency. The findings that perceived contingency influences investment behaviour, and perceived contingency can be readily changed, may inform new behavioural policies to promote agricultural investment.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Acknowledgements: The research documented in this paper was financed by ESRC-DFID, UK grant ES/J008893/1. Some of Alistair Munro’s expenses were supported by JSPS, Japan KAKENHI Grant Number 25101002 . Ethical clearance for the study was obtained from the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST) with research registration number SS2806, and from the University of East Anglia. We thank Joshua Balungira and his team at The Field Lab for support with the fieldwork and Borja Perez Viana for research assistance. We thank participants at seminars at UEA, ISS (The Hague), University of Manchester, Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi), the Institute of Dalit Studies (New Delhi), and SEEDEC Wageningen for their comments. Data availability: Data will be made available on request.
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Global Development (formerly School of International Development)
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Behavioural Economics Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Behavioural and Experimental Development Economics Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Environment, Resources and Conflict Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Gender and Development Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Impact Evaluation University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	14 Oct 2023 00:53
Last Modified:	14 Oct 2023 00:53
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/93288
DOI:	10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106427

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