Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Persad, Geeta G., Samset, Bjørn H., Wilcox, Laura J., Allen, Robert J., Bollasina, Massimo A., Booth, Ben B. B., Bonfils, Céline, Crocker, Tom, Joshi, Manoj ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811 and Lund, Marianne T. (2023) Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments. Environmental Research Letters, 2. ISSN 1748-9326

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Abstract

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols' climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols' complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society's ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	20 Jun 2023 13:31
Last Modified:	25 Jun 2023 23:49
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/92442
DOI:	10.1088/2752-5295/acd6af

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