Large modeling uncertainty in projecting decadal surface ozone changes over city clusters of China

Weng, Xiang, Li, Jiawei, Forster, Grant and Nowack, Peer ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4588-7832 (2023) Large modeling uncertainty in projecting decadal surface ozone changes over city clusters of China. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (9). ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

Climate policies will affect future surface ozone pollution in China. Here, we simulate changes in summertime ozone across China by 2030 under four emission scenarios reflecting different levels of climate action. We also contrast results obtained with two different chemical mechanisms employed in the chemical transport model (WRF-Chem). With emission reductions in ozone precursors introduced by climate policies, both mechanisms show promising ozone mitigation for most parts of China. However, they disagree starkly in China's three main city clusters, where one mechanism projects worsening ozone pollution by 2030 despite the emission reductions. We analyze possible drivers of this important discrepancy, in particular the role of varying ozone chemical regimes affecting its sensitivity to emission changes. We recommend an intercomparison project to examine this critical modeling uncertainty among other models/mechanisms, which would be invaluable for informing local and regional emission control strategies that are based on single-model results.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ozone,chemical transport modeling,air pollution,china,decadal projections,climate policy,emission controls,urban pollution,modeling uncertainty,sdg 11 - sustainable cities and communities,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/sustainable_cities_and_communities
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 02 May 2023 08:30
Last Modified: 26 Jul 2023 09:48
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/91913
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL103241

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