Understanding the drivers of coastal flood exposure and risk from 1860 to 2100

Lincke, Daniel, Hinkel, Jochen, Mengel, Matthias and Nicholls, Robert J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109 (2022) Understanding the drivers of coastal flood exposure and risk from 1860 to 2100. Earth's Future, 10 (12). ISSN 2328-4277

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Abstract

Global coastal flood exposure (population and assets) has been growing since the beginning of the industrial age and is likely to continue to grow through 21st century. Three main drivers are responsible: (1) climate-related mean sea-level change, (2) vertical land movement contributing to relative sea-level rise, and (3) socio-economic development. This paper attributes growing coastal exposure and flood risk from 1860 to 2100 to these three drivers. For historic flood exposure (1860 to 2005) we find that the roughly six-fold increase in population exposure and 53-fold increase in asset exposure are almost completely explained by socio-economic development (>97% for population and >99% for assets). For future exposure (2005 to 2100), assuming a middle-of-the-road regionalized socio-economic scenario (SSP2) without coastal migration and sea-level rise according to RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, climate-change induced sea-level rise will become the most important driver for the growth in population exposure, while growth in asset exposure will still be mainly determined by socio-economic development.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Research Funding: PROTECT project. Grant Number: 869304; ERA4CS Projects ISIPEDIA. Grant Number: 01LS1711C; INSeaPTION. Grant Number: 01LS1703A; FORMAS; BMBF; IFD; MINECO; ANR; EU. Grant Number: 690462; CoCliCo project. Grant Number: 101003598; COACCH project. Grant Number: 776479
Uncontrolled Keywords: attribution,coastal flood exposure,coastal flood risk,sea-level rise,environmental science(all),earth and planetary sciences (miscellaneous),sdg 8 - decent work and economic growth,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 18 Nov 2022 12:31
Last Modified: 09 Jan 2023 09:33
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/89932
DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002584

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