Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5°C and 4°C of global warming in six countries

Price, Jeff, Warren, Rachel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599, Forstenhäusler, Nicole, Wallace, Craig, Jenkins, Rhosanna, Osborn, Timothy J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799 and Van Vuuren, D. P. (2022) Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5°C and 4°C of global warming in six countries. Climatic Change, 174 (1-2). ISSN 0165-0009

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Abstract

We quantify the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the probability and length of severe drought in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India). This includes an examination of different land cover classes, and a calculation of the proportion of population in 2100 (SSP2) at exposed to severe drought lasting longer than one year. Current pledges for climate change mitigation, which are projected to still result in global warming levels of 3°C or more, would impact all of the countries in this study. For example, with 3°C warming, more than 50% of the agricultural area in each country is projected to be exposed to severe droughts of longer than one year in a 30-year period. Using standard population projections, it is estimated that 80%-100% of the population in Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana (and nearly 50% of the population of India) are projected to be exposed to a severe drought lasting one year or longer in a 30-year period. In contrast, we find that meeting the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, that is limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, is projected to greatly benefit all of the countries in this study, greatly reducing exposure to severe drought for large percentages of the population and in all major land cover classes, with Egypt potentially benefiting the most.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding: The research leading to these results received funding from the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). TJO also received support from the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate project INTEGRATE funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant no. NE/P006809/1).
Uncontrolled Keywords: sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 01 Jun 2022 12:30
Last Modified: 08 Mar 2024 22:31
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/85285
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03359-2

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