Agricultural land-use change modelling for land-use planning in Thailand

Kaswiset, Netnapa (2021) Agricultural land-use change modelling for land-use planning in Thailand. Doctoral thesis, University of East Anglia.

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Abstract

This study compared the ability of different models to simulate possible land use changes at a crop specific level in two study areas within northern and north-eastern, Thailand: Mae Chan and Lam Mun Sub-watersheds.
Five models were examined: Dyna-CLUE, CA-Markov, Land Change Modeller (LCM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) and Agent-based model (ABM). Modelling results were validated using observed data and three of the models were selected to produce simulations for 2025. These simulations were evaluated against further observed data and the expectations of local land use experts.
The results indicated variations in performance by models, between study areas and for different crops. The most promising models (CA-Markov, LCM and ABM) were selected for simulation. The CA-Markov performed well in validation but less so for simulation (changes occurred in restricted areas and were overly clustered). The validation was noticeably better in the second study area, which had different crops. Overall, the two models which performed best in simulations (i.e. trends matched observed data) were the LCM and the ABM, with the latter requiring appreciably greater effort to implement. The research found that it is possible to model agricultural land use change at the crop specific level using a range of different models, but certain land uses were more challenging to model. For instance, rice was better modelled than crops involved in rotations (sugarcane) or influenced by market or policy factors (pineapple and rubber).
While the insights here could be applied to land use modelling in other agricultural areas, it is difficult to specify a single ‘best’ model, as different modelling approaches may be suitable depending on the particular character of the study area and the objectives of the land planner. ABM shows great potential in areas where crop diversity is high and there is a desire to understand the motivations of farmers.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User:	Nicola Veasy
Date Deposited:	22 Feb 2022 16:16
Last Modified:	22 Feb 2022 16:16
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/83637
DOI:

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