Was Alpha deadlier than wild-type Covid? Analysis in rural England

Brainard, Julii, Grossi Sampedro, Carlota Maria, Sweeting, Anna and Fordham, Ric ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5520-6255 (2022) Was Alpha deadlier than wild-type Covid? Analysis in rural England. Infection, 50 (5). 1171–1178. ISSN 0300-8126

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Abstract

Background: It is useful to document whether each newly dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern was more or less dangerous than preceding dominant variant(s). We assessed if the emergence of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant in autumn 2020 could be linked to higher case fatality rates, compared to original wild-type COVID-19, subgrouping by age band, sex, deprivation or month of diagnosis as potential risk factors. Methods: Observational study and secondary analysis were conducted of SARS-CoV-2 cases diagnosed due to medical need or occupational exposure in an administrative area of Eastern England, UK (base population 1 million), who first tested positive in the period 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to examine relationships of age group, sex, deprivation group and month of diagnosis with case fatality rates within 28 days of diagnosis. Marginal probabilities for risk of dying were calculated separately for the first two main ‘wave’ periods of the English pandemic. Results: Older age and male sex consistently raised the risk of mortality in both wave periods. Higher deprivation was linked to mortality risk in the first wave period, but not in the second wave. Mortality decreased over time during the first wave period, but slightly increased over time during the second wave. Cases were younger in the second wave, and median age of the deceased varied little between waves. Interpretation: The Alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 did not lead to higher mortality rates for any age, deprivation or sex group, compared to case fatality rates in the early part of the pandemic period.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Funding: Dr. Brainard was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King’s College London in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and collaboration with the University of East Anglia.. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, UEA, the Department of Health or UKHSA.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	covid-19,risk factors,epidemiology,disease outbreak,deprivation,mortality,deprivation,disease outbreak,epidemiology,risk factors,microbiology (medical),infectious diseases,2* ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2700/2726
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Public Health and Health Services Research (former - to 2023) Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Health Economics
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Feb 2022 08:30
Last Modified:	03 Jan 2024 02:58
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/83569
DOI:	10.1007/s15010-022-01787-x

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