Quantification of impacts between 1.5°C and 4°C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries

He, Yi, Manful, Desmond, Warren, Rachel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0122-1599, Forstenhaeusler, Nicole, Osborn, Timothy J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799, Price, Jeff, Jenkins, Rhosanna, Wallace, Craig and Yamazaki, Dai (2022) Quantification of impacts between 1.5°C and 4°C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries. Climatic Change, 170 (1-2). ISSN 0165-0009

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We project climate change induced changes in fluvial flood risks for six global warming levels between 1.5 and 4°C by 2100, focusing on the major river basins of six countries. Daily time series of precipitation, temperature and monthly potential evapotranspiration were generated by combining monthly observations, daily reanalysis data, and projected changes in the five CMIP5 GCMs also selected in the ISI-MIP fast track project. These series were then used to drive the HBV hydrological model and the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to simulate river discharge and flood inundation. Our results indicate that return periods of 1 in 100-year floods in the late 20th century (Q100-20C) are likely to decrease with warming. At 1.5°C warming, 47%, 66%, 27%, 65%, 62% and 92% of the major basin areas in Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India respectively experience a decrease in the return period of Q100-20C, increasing to 54%, 81%, 28%, 82%, 86% and 96% with 4°C warming. The decrease in return periods leads to increased number of people exposed to flood risks, particularly with 4°C warming, where exposure in the major river basin areas in the six countries increase significantly, ranging from a doubling (China) to more than 50-fold (Egypt). Limiting warming to 1.5°C would avoid much of these increased risks, resulting in increases ranging from 12% to 1266% for the 6 countries.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding Information: The study was funded by the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). TJO also received support from the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate project INTEGRATE funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant no. NE/P006809/1). DY is funded by TOUGOU program by MEXT Japan (JPMXD0717935457). The observed discharge data was obtained from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC).
Uncontrolled Keywords: cama-flood,climate change and warming,cmip5,fluvial flooding,hbv,global and planetary change,atmospheric science,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2306
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Faculty of Science > School of Pharmacy
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 14 Dec 2021 14:30
Last Modified: 08 Mar 2024 18:31
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/82677
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03289-5

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