Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Kikstra, Jarmo S., Vinca, Adriano, Lovat, Francesco, Boza-Kiss, Benigna, van Ruijven, Bas, Wilson, Charlie, Rogelj, Joeri, Zakeri, Behnam, Fricko, Oliver and Riahi, Keywan (2021) Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes. Nature Energy, 6 (12). 1114–1123. ISSN 2058-7546

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding Information: This study was funded by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821471 (ENGAGE) (J.S.K., A.V., B.B.-K., F.L., B.v.R., J.R., B.Z., O.F. and K.R.). This project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821124 (NAVIGATE) (F.L., B.v.R., C.W. and K.R.). This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council under grant agreement no. NE/S007 415/1 (J.S.K.).
Uncontrolled Keywords: electronic, optical and magnetic materials,energy engineering and power technology,fuel technology,renewable energy, sustainability and the environment,sdg 7 - affordable and clean energy,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2500/2504
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 03 Dec 2021 01:43
Last Modified: 26 Apr 2022 00:24
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/82505
DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8

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