Optimistic update bias holds firm: Three tests of robustness following Shah et al.

Garrett, Neil ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1440-472X and Sharot, Tali (2017) Optimistic update bias holds firm: Three tests of robustness following Shah et al. Consciousness and Cognition, 50. pp. 12-22. ISSN 1053-8100

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Abstract

A diverse body of research has demonstrated that people update their beliefs to a greater extent when receiving good news compared to bad news. Recently, a paper by Shah et al. claimed that this asymmetry does not exist. Here we carefully examine the experiments and simulations described in Shah et al. and follow their analytic approach on our data sets. After correcting for confounds we identify in the experiments of Shah et al., an optimistic update bias for positive life events is revealed. Contrary to claims made by Shah et al., we observe that participants update their beliefs in a more Bayesian manner after receiving good news than bad. Finally, we show that the parameters Shah et al. pre-selected for simulations are at odds with participants’ data, making these simulations irrelevant to the question asked. Together this report makes a strong case for a true optimistic asymmetry in belief updating.

Item Type:	Article
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Psychology
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Social Cognition Research Group Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Cognition, Action and Perception
Related URLs:	http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/278366...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	08 Oct 2021 00:56
Last Modified:	23 Oct 2022 03:05
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/81610
DOI:	10.1016/j.concog.2016.10.013

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