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Bamunawala, Janaka, Ranasinghe, Roshanka, Dastgheib, Ali, Nicholls, Robert J. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109, Murray, A. Brad, Barnard, Patrick L., Sirisena, T. A. J. G., Duong, Trang Minh, Hulscher, Suzanne J. M. H. and van der Spek, Ad
(2021)
Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines.
Scientific Reports, 11.
ISSN 2045-2322
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Abstract
Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Faculty \ School: | University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| UEA Research Groups: | University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Jul 2021 00:08 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Jan 2024 03:06 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/80697 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-021-93221-9 |
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