Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion

Toimil, A., Losada, I.j., Hinkel, J. and Nicholls, R. J. (2021) Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion. Climate Risk Management, 33. ISSN 2212-0963

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Abstract

Adaptation requires planning strategies that consider the combined effect of climatic and non-climatic drivers, which are deeply uncertain. This uncertainty arises from many sources, cascades and accumulates in risk estimates. A prominent trend to incorporate this uncertainty in adaptation planning is through adaptive approaches such as the dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP). We present a quantitative DAPP application for coastal erosion management to increase its utilisation in this field. We adopt an approach in which adaptation objectives and actions have continuous quantitative metrics that evolve over time as conditions change. The approach hinges on an adaptation information system that comprises hazard and impact modelling and systematic monitoring to assess changing risks and adaptation signals in the light of adaptation pathway choices. Using an elaborated case study, we force a shoreline evolution model with waves and storm surges generated by means of stochastic modelling from 2010 to 2100, considering uncertainty in extreme weather events, climate variability and mean sea-level rise. We produce a new type of adaptation pathways map showing a set of 90-year probabilistic trajectories that link changing objectives (e.g., no adaptation, limit risk increase, avoid risk increase) and nourishment placement over time. This DAPP approach could be applied to other domains of climate change adaptation bringing a new perspective in adaptive planning under deep uncertainty.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: adaptation information system,adaptation pathways,climate change adaptation,coastal erosion,dynamic adaptive policy pathways,uncertainty,global and planetary change,geography, planning and development,atmospheric science,management, monitoring, policy and law,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2306
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 22 Jul 2021 00:07
Last Modified: 30 Sep 2021 16:41
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/80687
DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100342

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