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Jenkins, K. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6740-5139, Surminski, S., Hall, J. and Crick, F.
(2017)
Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.
Science of the Total Environment, 595.
pp. 159-168.
ISSN 0048-9697
Abstract
Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | sdg 11 - sustainable cities and communities,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/sustainable_cities_and_communities |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences |
| UEA Research Groups: | University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 29 May 2021 00:12 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Jun 2023 22:31 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/80159 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.242 |
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