Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

Wilson, Charlie, Guivarch, Céline, Kriegler, Elmar, van Ruijven, Bas, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Valeria Jana and Thompson, Erica L. (2021) Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation. Climatic Change, 166 (1-2). ISSN 0165-0009

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Abstract

Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation path- ways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diag- nostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriate- ness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate mitigation,evaluation,iam,process-based integrated assessment model,global and planetary change,atmospheric science ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2306
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 05 May 2021 00:02
Last Modified: 12 Jul 2021 00:20
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/79914
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9

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